Fifteen Bear Market Years

The stock market, from 1929 to 2009 (Source:  S&P Equity Research), as represented by the S&P 500, had fifteen years where the median decline in value was thirty-four percent.

That's fifteen bear market years when a portfolio of stocks really went down.  Scary.

But staying out of the market from 1929 to 2009 would have been a very bad idea.  Because even with fifteen horrible years the long term trend for the S&P 500 was positive.  An investment in a fund tracking the index, including reinvested dividends, would have grown substantially.

No one can predict the future.  Past returns do not necessarily reflect the probability of any future returns.

But history shows taking money out of the market, and thus missing the positive trend, was a poor long term strategy.  It would have been much better to stay in.